Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 3.055413 3.584863 4.171913 4.870137 5.676989 6.579089 7.663160
2025-10-19 2.199603 2.895541 3.751963 4.878990 6.318306 8.089712 10.429489
2025-10-26 1.658397 2.406228 3.410621 4.848096 6.840656 9.491267 13.267972
2025-11-02 1.260117 1.990590 3.049029 4.677176 7.096994 10.533894 15.750961
2025-11-09 0.965214 1.645996 2.701734 4.433076 7.168945 11.283134 17.880090
2025-11-16 0.783591 1.431355 2.498690 4.351264 7.440900 12.324666 20.537012
2025-11-23 0.652374 1.269562 2.344633 4.309574 7.750311 13.438171 23.417632
2025-11-30 0.584631 1.204119 2.337994 4.507496 8.473032 15.290533 27.702840
2025-12-07 0.505589 1.100451 2.242809 4.527170 8.878003 16.642758 31.285011
2025-12-14 0.436424 1.001699 2.138288 4.508636 9.202531 17.879695 34.790543
2025-12-21 0.381753 0.921702 2.055767 4.516581 9.571218 19.227954 38.634311
2025-12-28 0.367039 0.925914 2.144777 4.881347 10.681117 22.076483 45.581142
2026-01-04 0.332885 0.880707 2.125114 5.023512 11.375787 24.235885 51.507082
2026-01-11 0.303169 0.840453 2.110460 5.176050 12.116587 26.579105 58.076322
2026-01-18 0.268637 0.780891 2.041438 5.195579 12.572856 28.394711 63.777592
2026-01-25 0.228757 0.698462 1.903289 5.031429 12.595501 29.300910 67.678136
2026-02-01 0.190639 0.611928 1.738978 4.776239 12.370099 29.640476 70.393346
2026-02-08 0.165979 0.558116 1.648808 4.690703 12.532823 30.852137 75.148276
2026-02-15 0.146423 0.514987 1.579256 4.646755 12.789722 32.302976 80.591338
2026-02-22 0.138509 0.506546 1.604323 4.859458 13.720472 35.422912 90.201091
2026-03-01 0.124987 0.476620 1.562416 4.880677 14.157401 37.407983 97.329395
2026-03-08 0.111836 0.444765 1.509035 4.860826 14.482464 39.154189 104.059665
2026-03-15 0.100999 0.418402 1.467638 4.869366 14.885797 41.137633 111.571224